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This
column has nothing to do with people like Mr. Fruit (CMO)and Mr.
Isdell (CEO). These guys are up on the bridge running the ship.
This
is a column for the Chief Petty Officers who happen to look to port
side and see the iceberg comming up fast. This column is for
the guys scoping out the life boats and saying maybe there is something
I can use on my next tour of duty.
That's
not to say that there are not a lot of people in the marketing department
at Coke ( according to a guy who works there and swore me to secrecy.)
She told me that they all had one burning question in common, in
their Coke Cooler chat's. "What do you think they're gonna
do for television?"
Well,
they won't have long to wait. The television executions for "A
Cool American" will be unveiled next Wednesday. To put it mildly,
the "Cool American" spot is off da hook.
Working
For A Living. Every
now and then, I actually have to get up off my ass and go into a
client's office and put in an honest day's work. The past five days
were like that. Ad agencies play fast and loose with their work
day. The Global 1000 enterprises that I work for, don't allow for
such a caviler attitude.
This
past week I was expected to show up at 9am and take work home when
I left at 7 each night. Just like any other high-priced manager
on the team. During those 10 hour days, I left the house at 7:30
am. Sweated through the rush hour traffic snarls that make life
and work in the city a cursefest. Swilled down a Coke and a muffin
before the first meeting of the day. Worked my brain to the bone,
non-stop 'til noon. Grabbed something equally unhealthy at the company
cafeteria and took it back to my desk, to get ready for the mid-day
crisis that was sure to walk through my door before
2pm. Multitasked my way through meetings, conference calls, fire
drills and death marches. Kissed up to the command structure. Became
known as "that guy in Carole's Office." Used my cell phone
because I could not for the life of me figure out the seven didget
billing code to use the phone on my desk. Became driven insane trying
to get my computer to send print commands to a document printer
that was in the same hemisphere as my temporary office. Wore a security
badge at all times. Didn't go to the bathroom because every door
locked behind me and I would not be around long enough to be given
an acess pass. Got and lost my e-mail because Earthlink Web Access
e-mail sucks the big weenie. In other words,
I
had to deal with the stuff that most of you take for granted every
day of your working lives.
How
quickly we forget what it's like to live and work in America, when
you happen to be self-employed. After this past week's experience
I have a few things to share with you who work from 9 to 5. First
and foremost, realize your dreams and hopes of doing or developing
or creating something that will allow you to quit your day job.
If you don't love what you do for a living, what you do will
ultimatly make you hate your life.
Get
that screenplay out of the drawer and bring it back to life. Take
that music, photography, Gormet Chef class or whatever and kickstart
your way to a change for the better.
If
the corporate life style suits you then embrace it like a Samurai.
There
are a lot of people out there who are fired but don't yet know it,
because the budget to replace them hasn't been approved or the proper
excuse hasn't been found or just the damn paperwork hasn't caught
up to them.
Get
your damn ear to the ground, Bosco. Find out where you stand
and take one step sideways before the piano drops. Finally and
most importantly. Love your family more than your job. They
will be the only ones on your team when it comes to an end. And
it will come to an end. Bank on it. Head count is the one thing
keeping your boss up at night. How can she do more with less.
In
the past five days I did the copy and art direction on 14 commercials,
10 print ads, one 5 minute trade show film, and one in-store display.
In the past five days the guy working in the office down the hall
did the copy on trade ad. I report to the same person he does.
No
matter what you do for a living, there is somebody out there like
me who will out gun you at every turn. The minute that apples
to apples comparison is made by your fearless leader your paycheck
is at risk. This is not a scare tactic. This is a fact of life.
Kiss your babies. Bring flowers to your wife. Rock your husband's
world. In business, the only thing that counts is family.
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The
problem Is Not Knowing What the Problem Is.
Although
marketing techniques and technologies come and go, one thing
has remained the same since Sidney Greenstreet and Gregory
Peck faced off in "The Man In The Gray Flannel Suit".
Marketing has been based upon numbers. How many? How much?
How fast? How far? How Long? How Often? How come?
Answers
to these and other critical questions about why people buy
shit, has always been reduced to numerical coefficients and
then qualified, quantified, projected and analysed. These
Metrics and Matrixes have been the rule of thumb for decades.
For example,
one of the latest trends in marketing is being touted as Lifetime-Value
Modeling. ItŐs proponents are hailing it as "The Most
Valuable Metric".
Here's
how it's supposed to work. An Insurance Company wants to target
prospects that will become profitable customers over the long
term. The most profitable prospects are those who respond,
are approved (i.e. low risk), pay the premium, persist for
several years and even buy additional products and services.
How do they propose the Insurance Company find such people?
Lifetime-Value Modeling proposes that the Insurance Company
begin by defining a Lifetime Value measure that consists of
these key components.
Response.
Arguably the key driver of profitability, they submit that
response is higher when the prospect feels comfortable doing
financial transactions through the mail. Why, because for
the past five years the numbers show this to be the most effective
way of reaching the prospect. What a crock. What the numbers
don't show is the effect of the anthrax scare on the direct-response
industry.
Approval.
"Most-responsive" prospects are typically riskier than "less-responsive"
prospects. In the above example, risk is defined as the risk
of a death claim. It's critical to temper the response targeting
with the predicted risk level. "Predicted" requires a numerical
projection which may or may not factor in such change-related
incidentals as the impact of a new drug for treating acne
that has resulted in a sizable upswing in teen-suicides.
Activation.
The prospect activates once he or she responds and is approved.
Activation indicates that the first premium has been paid.
Again, metrics based on an occurrence that happens this month
but may not take into consideration such "real-world" changes
as the massive layoffs in the airline and travel industry
or the downfall of Enron and it's effect on the nation's public
utility industry or political landscape.
Product
Profitability. The core product being offered forms the
basis for the value of the model. This value is discounted
in today's dollars for the expected life of the customer.
What projections could have anticipated the effect of 9/11
on the insurance industry as a whole, or this insurance company
and it's product offerings in particular. Now, here comes
the scary part.
Lifetime-Value
Modeling proposes that these components and others be combined
in an equation that calculates a Lifetime Value measure. The
values are derived from past experience and used to score
and rank new lists of prospects. The equation and specific
components equals the probability of becoming an active account.
This value is a probability derived from a predictive model
that uses data from a past campaign. Logistic regression is
used to create a model. (Logistic regression is a statistical
technique that uses continuous values such as age and income
to predict a binary outcome such as 'active' or 'non-active'
account status.) This component combines response, approval
and activation.
The target
for the model becomes those accounts that responded in the
past, were approved and activated (by paying the first premium)
vs. all others. Risk is computed as an index value that represents
an adjustment to the average for the risk of a death claim.
These values are taken from historical research provided by
the actuarial group. I told you this was scary.
Simply
stated, this brand new Marketing Technique proposes to take
performance metrics from the past to predict or project the
Lifetime Value of a given customer in the future. A future
subject to constant change. What is wrong with this picture?
In
these times of constant change, it is time for a change in
the way corporations approach the ways and means by which
they market their products and services to an ever mobile
menu of consumerŐs unmet wants, needs and desires.
In the
1960Ős Corporate America embraced the cultural revolution
and replaced the tiny hammers in the head of Anacin commercials
with the likes of "Think Small" for Volkswagen, "We Try Harder"
for Avis, "I'm Stuck On Band-Aid" for Johnson & Johnson. Advertisers
changed the creative face of their advertising because their
audience was changing. They were changing their attitudes.
They were changing their values. They were changing the ways
in which they expressed their dissatisfaction with the status
quo.
Where
their fathers were once content venting their opinions in
a tersely worded "letter to the Editor", these new consumers
were out burning their bras and their draft cards in front
of the network news cameras. They were Marching on Washington,
sitting in and going to jail or heading for the Canadian Border.
When the
cultural revolution hit Madison Avenue, the gray flannel suits
and rep ties gave way to denim jeans and shoulder length hair.
And commercials went from being an annoyance to becoming an
art form. Today we are beset with a new cultural revolution.
Where as the revolution of the 60's took place over a number
of years, the revolutions of the 2000's take place over
a matter of months. As in the 60's values are changing,
attitudes are changing and most importantly; the ways in
which people make their buying decisions are changing.
In today's
world of change, metrics can only serve to tell you that
your marketing efforts have failed. They can't tell you
how. They can't tell you why. And they cannot project the
way to solve the problem. That's why they need a new attitude
on Madison Avenue. And you and I are just the fire-starters
to give it to them.
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On
Being A Good Sport. There
were a number of casualties at the past Olympics that no amount
of misplaced "security" could have prevented. The greatest
of these was the U.S. Basketball Team. What a bunch of losers.
"Personally,
I think the NBA is image-challenged. I don't think some of the players
at the Olympics sent the right signals," said Sam Sussman,
vp and media director at Starcomm was quoted to say in the
copy of AdWeek I got during my afore mentioned free lunch. Well
duh.
Didn't
send the right signals? those million dollar crybabies were a disgrace
on so many levels it boggles the imagination. I give Iverson his
right to wear gangsta braids and jail tats like he's all that and
a bucket of nails. Fine. But when did it become Kosher for Professional-ranked
atheletes to go up against amature ranked atheletes in global competition
in the first place? Let alone, whine about getting their ass-kicked.
In 2002 they placed sixth. Pitiful. Their coach Larry Brown gave
the excuse that they only had two weeks to practice as a team.
Excuse
me, but when did the NBA start playing a year long season? Was
I out of the room when that happened? What became of the so-called
"Dream Team?" Les Winkler of the Southern Illinoisian's
wife( Illinois High School basketball coined the term "March
Madness") put it best. Mrs. Winkler said that the 2004 Olympic
Basketball team was a "Miracle in reverse." Hell,
a couple players, including team captain Allen Iverson, were suspended
for the Olympic team's first exhibition game for blowing off practice.
This is a team that lost to Puerto Rico. If Puerto was a state
it would have the lowest per capita income in the nation. This
tells me these millionaires couldn't hold their own in a pick-up
game in East Harlem.
But
this column is not a sports column and what I know about basketball
I learned from shooting 15 commercials with Karl Malone. ( Malone
hates the game, never watches it and refuses to talk about it.)
This column is about marketing. Starcom's Mr. Sussman also said
that the situation wasn't dour enough to have any of our clients
say that they don't want to advertise in NBA telecasts. So you take
the Olympic fiasco, the Kobe vs Shaq travisty and put them against
the sliding demos for men 18-45 on the networks and you have what
many on Madison Avenue are touting as the "Ultimate Reality
Show." Remember when competitive sports was held up as
a symbol of all that was good and right with the American way of
life? As Arsenio Hall would say, "Hmmmmm?"
Stay
Tuned.
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MARKETERS
FROM
THE FOLLOWING COMPANIES
READ
MADISON AVENEW:
OGILVY
& MATHER
MULLEN ADVERTISING
THE MARTIN AGENCY
TBWA CHAIT/DAY
GSD&M
YOUNG&RUBICAM
McCANN-ERICKSON
LEO BURNETT USA
PUBLICIS
FOOTE,CONE,BELDING
GREY ADVERTISING
HILL, HOLIDAY
LANDOR ASSOCIATES
MODEM MEDIA
BUMBLE WARD & ASSOCIATES
ADRANTS
NEW YORK TIMES
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
NEW YORK OBSERVER
BRANDWEEK
ADWEEK
LAS VEGAS REVIEW JOURNAL
DOW JONES
LEXIS-NEXIS
COX NEWSPAPERS
PUBLIC INTEREST NETWORK
BANK
OF AMERICA
NATIONSBANK
THE PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP
INDYMAC BANCORP
GUARDIAN LIFE INSURANCE
KMPG/PEAT
MARWICK
DEAN WITTER
VERISIGN
INVESTORS BANK & TRUST
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING
MUTUAL LIFE OF CANADA
GENERAL MOTORS
MERCEDES-B ENZ OF N.A.
FORD MOTOR CO
NISSAN NORTH AMERICA
CHRYSLER
MOTORS CORP
MICROSOFT CORP
SUN MICROSYSTEMS
CISCO SYSTEMS
IBM CORPORATION
PULITZER TECHNOLOGIES
DIEBOLD
HUGHES NETWORK SYSTEMS
ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES
THE LIMITED, INC.
TIFFANY
CO.
BOEING
AMACO CORPORATION
20TH CENTURY FOX
DIRECTV
VISABLE WORLD, INC.
VIACOM INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSAL STUDIOS
DISNEY WORLDWIDE SERVICES,
INTERNATIONAL CREATIVE MANAGEMENT
CAA
HOLLYWOOD GOWER CENTERH
SCREENVISION
EMERILS HOMEBASE
BARNES & NOBLE.
FANDANGO
EARTHLINK, INC
TIME WARNER TELECOM
XO COMMUNICATIONS
DELTA
AIR LINES
S.C. JOHNSON WAX
MERCK & CO.
KAISER PERMIANENTE
CANADIAN MENTAL HEALTH ASSN
STARBUCKS COFFEE CO
THE PROCTER AND GAMBLE
COMPANY
SCHERING-PLOUGH CORP.
And
You.
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